Black Friday is one of the most anticipated retail events of the year, but without careful planning, it can quickly become a complex operational challenge. During peak demand, one of an e-commerce business's biggest enemies isn't the competition—it's stockouts.
Selling a product that is actually out of stock means dealing with refunds, facing negative reviews, and, above all, losing the trust of newly acquired customers. To maximize profits, the success of your marketing campaigns must be backed by efficient order management and logistics.
To understand the scale of the challenge, just look at e-commerce trends in late November. Facing this period without the right infrastructure can put your entire operation under enormous pressure.
In the US alone, Black Friday 2025 online sales reached $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from 2024, while the entire Cyber Week surpassed $44 billion¹.
At warehouse level, however, the real challenge isn't just the percentage growth in sales, but the concentration of orders into just a few days.
Several fulfillment providers estimate that omnichannel sellers should prepare for daily order volumes of between 3 and 10 times their usual levels during the peak days of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. In some segments, spikes can reach between 300% and 500%.
In Europe, parcel volumes during Black Friday week in 2024 increased by more than 90% compared with an average week, putting significant pressure on logistics systems that were not prepared to handle such a concentrated workload.
From an operational perspective, your warehouse needs to be able to increase its picking and packing capacity almost overnight, with minimal room for error.
A failed delivery or an order cancellation due to an out-of-stock item isn't an isolated problem.
According to nShift's “Delivering for shoppers” (2024) study², approximately 87% of consumers will reduce their spending with a brand—or stop buying from it altogether—after a poor delivery experience.
Looking at the Italian market, a SAS survey³ conducted across a European sample found that 1 in 3 Italian consumers would be willing to abandon a brand after just one negative experience. That figure rises to nearly 60% after between 2 and 5 negative experiences.
The message is clear: during Black Friday, every out-of-stock product can have a customer acquisition and retention cost that goes far beyond a single lost sale.
The surge in sales brings a predictable consequence: an increase in returns.
According to the “2025 Retail Returns Landscape” report by NRF and Happy Returns⁴, the average online return rate in the US reached 19.3% in 2025, up from 17.6% in 2024.
Apparel remains one of the hardest-hit categories, accounting for more than 56% of total e-commerce returns. In addition, practices such as bracketing—ordering multiple sizes or colors with the intention of returning most of them—are now used by nearly two-thirds of online shoppers.
Faced with these figures, where should you start when building an infrastructure capable of handling peak demand? The first step, even before stocking the shelves, is to analyze historical data and classify your inventory correctly.
Black Friday preparation begins months in advance by analyzing your e-commerce historical data. Don't rely on gut feelings; data is one of your most powerful tools for anticipating demand.
This analysis allows you to optimize warehouse space and prioritize effectively:
Once volumes have been estimated, the next challenge is logistical: how do you physically organize goods in the warehouse to prepare and dispatch orders as quickly as possible?
During the Black Friday rush, warehouse staff can't afford to waste time walking through aisles looking for products. That's why many e-commerce businesses use ABC analysis, an inventory classification method related to the Pareto Principle that divides goods into three priority levels.
These are your best-selling products. As a general reference, they may represent approximately 20% of your catalog items while generating around 80% of your sales.
📦 Logistics recommendation: minimize the risk of stockouts and place these products as close as possible to the picking and packing stations to speed up the picking process.
As a general reference, these may account for around 30% of your catalog items and generate approximately 15% of your revenue.
📦 Logistics recommendation: these products require regular monitoring and can be placed in the middle areas of the warehouse.
These make up a significant proportion of the catalog — approximately 50% of items in a simplified ABC model — but may contribute only around 5% of sales.
📦 Logistics recommendation: store these products in less accessible areas of the warehouse. To prevent them from becoming dead stock, you can also bundle them with Category A products in promotional packs.
Once your inventory has been classified and positioned, you need to determine how much additional stock to keep on hand to respond to unexpected events. Even the most detailed analysis cannot anticipate every fluctuation in demand. This is where safety stock comes into play.
ong>stock de seguridad.Safety stock acts as a buffer against unexpected increases in demand and potential supplier delays.
Setting it using arbitrary percentages can be risky. One common approach is to use the following formula:
Safety Stock = (Maximum Daily Sales × Maximum Lead Time) − (Average Daily Sales × Average Lead Time)
This calculation provides an operational buffer to absorb an unexpected increase in sales or a supply delay, helping to reduce the risk of running out of stock.
Let's say you sell an average of 10 units per day and your supplier normally takes 5 days to deliver.
During a peak demand period, you estimate maximum sales of 30 units per day and a maximum delivery time of 8 days.
The calculation would be:
(30 × 8) − (10 × 5) = 240 − 50 = 190 units
In this scenario, your safety stock would be 190 additional units.
Since daily orders can increase considerably during Black Friday, it's worth calculating your safety stock using demanding scenarios based on historical data from previous years, rather than relying exclusively on a conservative average.
Calculating inventory isn't enough, though. Efficient organization of your day-to-day operations is essential to prevent bottlenecks.
Beyond forecasting, optimizing your day-to-day procedures can make a significant difference during peak periods.
Real-time synchronization. Use systems that instantly update inventory levels between your physical warehouse and your online store. Having accurate stock information helps prevent customers from purchasing products that are no longer available.
Backup suppliers. Identify secondary suppliers for your strategic products and, in particular, for packaging materials such as boxes, tape, and protective packaging.
Pre-assembled kits. Prepare promotional packs and product bundles in advance during quieter weeks. This can significantly reduce the time required to prepare orders during peak demand.
Reverse logistics. Establish efficient procedures for inspecting returned products and returning eligible items to inventory. You can also plan specific campaigns to clear excess stock once the promotional period has ended.
Implementing and managing all these strategies requires time, personnel, technology, and physical space.
Managing a seasonal peak in-house can require additional space, more resources, and a rapid adaptation of your operations.
How can you manage a significant increase in orders without overloading your own infrastructure?
Working with a specialized 3PL (Third-Party Logistics) provider allows you to outsource and manage different stages of the fulfillment process in an integrated way.
MBE eCommercePlus is an integrated and modular e-commerce solution designed to facilitate order management, fulfillment, and domestic and international shipping.
With scalable services, multiple shipping options, the expertise of MBE Centers, and the support of a dedicated consultant, you can optimize your e-commerce logistics and prepare your operations for peak demand periods such as Black Friday.
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